Geography and Urban Planning
Mohammad Nemati; Iraj Teimouri
Abstract
The aim of this research is to investigate the macroeconomic variables effect on housing prices and rents. The data are collected from reports and documents. Data is quarterly and is from 2008 to 2019. The ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model was used to analyze the data and the augmented Dickey-Fuller ...
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The aim of this research is to investigate the macroeconomic variables effect on housing prices and rents. The data are collected from reports and documents. Data is quarterly and is from 2008 to 2019. The ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model was used to analyze the data and the augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF) was used to examine the unit root of the variables. Results show that predictor variables have a significant explanatory effect on the behavior of the dependent variable. Thus, for the housing price, the regression equation was significant with an R squared of 0.98 and an adjusted R squared of 0.975. Accordingly, this model predicts 97.5% of the variance in the housing price. Also, for the rental price, the regression equation was significant with an R squared of 0.986 and an adjusted R squared of 0.982. Accordingly, this model predicts 98.2% of the variance in the rental price. In housing prices, "informal exchange rate", "inflation rate" and "liquidity rate" have a direct and positive correlation with housing prices. "Unemployment rate", "coin price" and "bank interest rate" are also directly and negatively correlated. Also, the effect of the "consumer price index", "official exchange rate", "number of residential units built" and "Volume of the stock market" is not significant. In housing rent, the "informal exchange rate" and "inflation rate" have a direct and positive correlation with housing rent. "coin price", "bank interest rate", and"Unemployment rate" are also directly and negatively correlated. Also, the effect of the "consumer price index", "official exchange rate", "number of residential units built", "liquidity rate", and "Volume of the stock market" is not significant.
